Up until the mid-to-late 1990s India pottered along as a side with a fine record on bunsen burners led by Bedi, Chandrasekhar and co. and a mixed record away from home, stopped from being truly dreadful in large part due to the exceptional talents of Gavaskar, Shastri and Kapil Dev and with the 1983 World Cup win as by far the biggest highlight. Then, under Azharuddin, Tendulkar, Ganguly and Dravid a new steel was injected into the side as they began to compete on equal terms, if not always with series wins, on a more regular basis. However, it was only when MS Dhoni became captain in 2008 that India truly emerged as a top three side in any conditions and, for an 18 month period, reigned as the number 1 side in the world. But things have gone badly wrong in the last six months and, after back-to-back 4-0 away defeats against a very good side in England and an in my opinion frankly less good side in Australia, appear to be back at square one.
With an ageing batting line-up and often toothless bowling attack, questions are being asked about just about every member of the sides that have played in England and Australia. In this post I will examine the question of what the future holds for India in the form of the game they were ranked first in less than six months ago.
The first thing to look at is the individual contributions of each of the players who took to the field during this embarrassing run of defeats:
Gautam Gambhir - Two shocking series really for an opener of his undoubted quality and supposedly sturdy technique. Averaging 17 in 3 Tests against England and 23 in 4 against Australia. At least things are getting better.
Abhinav Mukund - Discarded after being exposed against new ball in England. Average of 16 from 2 Tests from a man averaging 58 in FC cricket.
Rahul Dravid - Imperious in England (461 runs @ 77); woeful in Australia (194 runs @ 24 and bowled almost every time). Is being bowled so much a result of his age, and if so is he set to enter terminal decline?
Sachin Tendulkar - Some were surprised to see him not get the 100th ton in the World Cup final on his home ground, they were shocked that he couldn't manage it in England and astounded that 7 Tests later, including 3 against West Indies, he still hasn't got it. His returns are not the worst (ave. of 34 in England and 35 in Australia) but the hunt for the 100th 100 has left the Little Master short of his usual magic.
VVS Laxman - If we discount a brilliant 150 against West Indies between times, the worst (and quite possibly last) seven months of this Very Very Special player's career. Averaged 23 in England and 19 in Australia and was not able to get past 66.
Suresh Raina - Found out against the short ball for the second time in his brief Test career in England - averaged 13 and struggled not only against the tall pace bowlers but also against Swann's off-spin.
MS Dhoni - His defensive captaincy style of wracking up the runs and then sitting back and backing his legendary batting line-up to outbat the opposition has worked in the sub-continent but failed badly on both sides of the world away from home. Batting well below average as well and keeping disappointing in England though better in Australia.
Harbhajan Singh - 2 wickets in his 2 Tests in England. Once considered a potential breaker of Murali's records, now seemingly on the scrap heap.
Zaheer Khan - Hobbled out of the England series on the first morning. A minor miracle that he got through the series against Australia unscathed. He did OK but down on pace and a shadow of his former self.
Praveen Kumar - The best of the seamers in England with 15 wickets at under 30 whilst England piled on the runs. Rested against West Indies, then injured against Australia in the Tests since.
Ishant Sharma - Everybody says he is an 'unlucky' bowler but there must be more than just 'bad luck' to 16 wickets in 8 matches and an average of over 55 in both series.
Yuvraj Singh - Decent effort in single Test against England. Discarded after poor showing against West Indies and unavailable due to health issues since. The player of the 2011 World Cup remains an unfulfilled Test talent.
Sreesanth - Bowls good spells from time to time but nowhere near enough of the time. 8 wickets at 62 in his 3 Tests in England reflects much of his career unfortunately.
Virender Sehwag - Unfit in England, out of form in Australia. Should never have played in 2011 IPL and there is a case for him missing it this year too. Series averages of 10 and 25 far below his standards.
Amit Mishra - Ineffective in England and since axed.
RP Singh - His recall for The Oval was a surprising decision and didn't pay off at all as he went wicketless. Out of the frame again.
Virat Kohli - After a slow start improved throughout the tour of Australia. Topped the averages in the end, and with 8 ODI 100s already to his name, probably the most exciting 23 year old batsman in the international game.
Ravichandran Ashwin - Found conditions weren't quite to his liking in Australia but didn't disgrace himself (163 runs and 9 wickets in 3 Tests). Man of the Series against West Indies at home and miles more threatening than Harbhajan and Mishra were in England.
Wriddhiman Saha - A decent game in Adelaide and a solid looking back-up keeper.
Umesh Yadav - Takes wickets (14 of them in Australia) but doesn't really swing it and often gets hammered round the park when he's having a bad day.
Vinay Kumar - Didn't look Test standard in his single Test at Perth.
India's next Test is likely to be in August or September against New Zealand at home. That 3 match series is followed by 4 match series against England and Australia in a big home summer as India look to take revenge on their recent opposition on home soil. As well as those listed above these players are likely to come up in selection meetings:
Ajinkya Rahane - Opening batsman with 4th highest average ever in first-class cricket (68). Yet to make a Test debut.
Rohit Sharma - Talented middle-order player who has had some success in one-day cricket. Averages 64 in FC cricket.
Cheteshwar Pujara - Match-winning innings on debut against Australia in 2010/11. Followed by persistent injury woes. Averages 54 in FC cricket.
Subramaniam Badrinath - Experienced player who averages 61 in FC cricket but has only played 2 Tests with mixed results.
Ravindra Jadeja - Seen as a one-day specialist but averages 46 with the bat and 28 with the ball in the FC game. A genuine all-rounder who could balance up the side.
Pragyan Ojha - Did well against West Indies and regular 2nd spinner in the sub-continent
Varun Aaron - Genuine quick who had a decent but unspectacular debut against West Indies.
Abhimanyu Mithun - Reserve seamer in Australia with a mediocre record in the few Tests he's played thus far.
So, what to do with the future make up of the side? Recent results mean that changes are necessary in both batting and bowling.
The first name on my teamsheet remains Tendulkar - he is an icon who the youngsters should not be denied the chance to watch and play with until he retires and who can hardly be described as in horrendous knick. The 100th 100 will come eventually and he could well have another prolific year in him. He has made the No. 4 position his own and he stays there for me. Sehwag hasn't done well since the World Cup - his ODI world record excluded. However, that served notice that his incredible destructive powers have not gone completely missing. He'll return to form soon enough and stays at the top of the order. I am also extremely reluctant to leave out Dravid - he was the leading runscorer in a calendar year less than a month ago and one poor series shouldn't cause India to jettison him. Meanwhile, Kohli has established himself well after a slow start in Test cricket. In the long term his loose style of batting means that I view him as a number 5 and I think that is where he should bat in Tests from now on.
So that leaves two slots in the batting line-up - 2 and 6. Gambhir is an undoubted talent and likely future captain but he can't be made to feel untouchable at this point in his career. Therefore, Rahane, with his extraordinary FC stats must be in with a shout of a go at the top of the order. In the long term I think Gambhir could slot in at 3 when Dravid retires, with Rahane taking his place at the top of the order, so at this point I think Gambhir has to pay for two dreadful years and no hundred since 2010 in the long form of the game. Therefore, I would put Rahane in to open with Sehwag in India's next Test. Laxman is a difficult one and I have been a staunch supporter of his. However, it is hard to justify his staying in the team any longer when Dravid, Tendulkar and Sehwag with 400 Tests between them remain in the side anyway. Thus, I feel India need to search for somebody else at No. 6. Sharma, having been back up batsman for the last couple of series, seems deserving of an opportunity but I also like Badrinath (although he is 32 and not a No. 6), Pujara and Jadeja - because he could provide the much needed balance to the side particularly away from home. Sharma is next in waiting so to speak though and so it would be unfair to deny him a chance.
Dhoni's Test place is obviously not under threat and nor should be his captaincy. However, he needs to focus his tactics more towards winning matches than avoiding defeat - a policy which simply hasn't worked away from the sub-continent. His batting is what is and his stats have probably been badly affected by often having to come in at 150/5 rather than 450/5.
Ashwin's start to his Test career is strong enough to suggest that he can nail down the number eight place. In the sub-continent India will want to play two spinners, particularly as NZ, England and Australia, have all shown frailties against good slow bowlers. I believe Ojha is still a clear number two and, whilst he is never a future Hall of Famer, did well enough against the West Indies to suggest he has a future.
Amongst the seamers the wheat really needs to be sorted from the chaff. Of those listed above I would put them in the following categories:
Wheat - Zaheer, Praveen
Unsure - Ishant, Yadav, Aaron, Mithun
Chaff - Sreesanth, RP Singh, Vinay Kumar
In a 2 man attack I would have no hesitation in picking Zaheer and Praveen - even though that is severely lacking in pace I still think it is most likely to pose a threat to opponents next winter. My 3rd seamer away from home will probably have to remain Ishant, unless the pitch looks really fast when it will be Yadav although I would really hope that one of Aaron or Mithun, or somebody from left-field would kick on and pose a real sustained threat of the kind the English, South African and Australian seamers can.
Therefore, my first XI for the 1st Test against New Zealand is 1 Sehwag 2 Rahane 3 Dravid 4 Tendulkar 5 Kohli 6 Ro. Sharma 7 Dhoni 8 Ashwin 9 Zaheer 10 Praveen 11 Ojha with the possibility of Jadeja for Sharma and another seamer for Ojha to balance up the side.
My final squad is:
MS Dhoni (c + wk), Virender Sehwag (v-c), Ajinkya Rahane, Rahul Dravid, Sachin Tendulkar, Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma, Ravindra Jadeja, Wriddhiman Saha (wk), R. Ashwin, Pragyan Ojha, Zaheer Khan, Praveen Kumar, Varun Aaron, Abhimanyu Mithun, Ishant Sharma.
From this squad my first XI for the 1st Test against New Zealand is 1 Sehwag 2 Rahane 3 Dravid 4 Tendulkar 5 Kohli 6 Ro. Sharma 7 Dhoni (c + wk) 8 Ashwin 9 Zaheer 10 Praveen 11 Ojha with the possibility of Jadeja for Sharma and another seamer for Ojha at times to balance up the side.
However, even with these changes to the team Indian cricket needs to think about where it is heading. I'm not convinced that Duncan Fletcher is the right man for the coaching job but now he is in place I believe they have to stick with him until the transition is complete. That will probably involve finding somebody (Gambhir with Rahane opening for me) to bat at 3 and another at 4 (Sharma or Pujara in the long-term for me). But the toughest job will be instilling a winning feeling into Indian Test cricket again and effectively starting from scratch in finding an imposing seam attack - the lack of revolution in my side reflects a lack of seam-bowling talent. Fletcher stumbled across Harmison, Hoggard and Jones for England and he'll have to do something similar for India.
So India are in a very sticky period in Test cricket and in many ways now back to square one as they strive to be recognised as a top team in all conditions. Their adoring fans will be hoping they don't remain there for much longer.
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